[CHANGE] Pseudo-probability and other.

Hey there, welcome to the Metin2.SG forum, here you can find a lot of interesting stuff, why don't you register your account? It only takes a minute! Click on the "Forum Login or forum-register" button on the top-left corner!

Shoutbox

  • Sedentarius

    Mighty007 what is a keyboard killer?

  • Mighty007

    really i thought the keyboard Kilers are online 24/7

  • Lacex54

    This nature2k 24/7 online on forum

  • PooKeR

    hey <3 <3

  • Moise Rares

    hey girls <3

  • Degmond

    shadow said they'd be removed, can't see a reason to rage rly

  • Lyetta

    no deary @[GM]Kovach, I didn't and won't buy the pet. Now I'm gonna cry in the corner of my room.

  • [GM]Kovach

    Lyetta if you bought the pet with tp's, you should have it in your Mall Storage!

  • bombardieru

    oO

  • Lyetta

    the pet*. Again, I'm sorry for that. I didn't even wanted to insult you at all. xD

  • Lyetta

    Overall I couldn't get the mount because the quest just expired and I rage-yelled everything and I got a very justified ban, it was a very nice event. :D

  • Tjepper

    :thumbsup: Thanks for the event

  • [CoMa]Shadow

    Server on. The event is also over

  • Nicki Minaj

    lol wat

  • Moise Rares

    boy with gf looking for a 2nd one, please pm me.

  • Tjepper

    Hi :)

  • [GM]Emory

    Hello :)

  • bombardieru

    :))))))))))

  • Moise Rares

    NNN1 ;)

  • Gzanu

    yooo pastar <3 !

  • :thumbsup:
  • :airborne:
  • :assaultrifle:
  • :banned:
  • :bday:
  • :beer:
  • :blackeye:
  • :borg:
  • :censored:
  • :chainsaw:
  • :chinese:
  • :chrome:
  • :cookie:
  • :crazy:
  • :dance:
  • :dash:
  • :dead:
  • :doofy:
  • :evilgrin:
  • :fie:
  • :gamer:
  • :golly:
  • :growup:
  • :grumble:
  • :hail:
  • :hi:
  • :hmm:
  • :huntsman:
  • :ill:
  • :lol:
  • :miffy:
  • :minigun:
  • :misslelauncher:
  • :modo:
  • :monster:
  • :ninja:
  • :nono:
  • :oops:
  • :pardon:
  • :phatgrin:
  • :pillepalle:
  • :pleasantry:
  • :popcorn:
  • :puke:
  • :pump:
  • :rocketlauncher:
  • :rofl:
  • santa
  • :search:
  • :shit:
  • :sniper:
  • :spiteful:
  • :stick:
  • :stopping:
  • :thinking:
  • :this:
  • :topicclosed:
  • :vain:
  • :wayne:
  • :wbb:
  • :werderw:
  • :xeno:
  • :zombie:
  • :)
  • :(
  • ;)
  • :P
  • ^^
  • :D
  • ;(
  • X(
  • :*
  • :|
  • 8o
  • =O
  • <X
  • ||
  • :/
  • :S
  • X/
  • 8)
  • ?(
  • :huh:
  • :rolleyes:
  • :love:
  • 8|
  • :cursing:
  • :thumbdown:
  • :thumbup:
  • :sleeping:
  • :whistling:
  • :evil:
  • :saint:
  • <3
  • :!:
  • :?:
  • I want to talk about two possible changes in this topic:

    • Pseudo-Probability
    • Auction House/Search Item

    What is Pseudo-Probability? It is a mechanism that makes events those have a probability to happen less random. Normally in the game, an event has the same probability to happen everytime, if I fail to put a stone (70%), the next time there will be the same chance of succes (30%). Now with the Pseudo-Probability when there an event is conditioned by the precedent tries, so an event has a modifier to his probability to happen that is determined by precedent fails or success, if more fails happen in a row the prob of success will be higher for every fail happened before, similarly if more success happen in a row the prob of fail will be higher for every success happened before. Moreover the modifiers accumulated will be reset when a different event will happen, so in the case of fails in a row this event would be a success and so on.


    So let's make an example if I fail 10 times in a row to put an evasion stone +5, we decide that the modifier is additive (and for example 5%), the next time I will try to put a stone in the same armour there will be a chance of 30%+ 10*5% = 80% of success. In this case if the 11th try will be a success all the modifiers regarding that particular event (putting an evasion +5 in the same armour ) will be reset to zero. As you see with this kind of modifier the probability will be 100% after a finite number of tries.


    *In the next section there will be a little of math, if you hate it skip this section until the @ :D *


    Instead the modifier could be multiplicative in this case, with 1 fails the next try will have 30% + 3.5% (3.5 is the 5% of the chance of fail 70), with 2 fails the next try will have 30% + 3.5% + 3.325%, (3.325 is the 5% of the chance of fail in this case 66.5).
    As you see with multiplicative modifier you will never reach 100% of success (asintotic).


    @


    I thought to apply this mechanism to metin when I failed 8 stones +5 in a row, I think this should never happen because a player could possibly leave the game after this frustrating event, but I love this game so I decided to propose this fix for these frustrating parts that we all hate (especially new players that don't see attraction in the game like old players like me, because they don't want to grind all day long).


    Moreover I want to say explicitly that this mechanism could be applied to upgrades of equip parts but is not too necessary because there are many items that works well for those (i.e compass), instead in my opionion it should be applied to insertion of stones (upgrade of stones too why not) and would make the game more enjoyable that is what all we want.


    For the skeptics, this mechanism can't be bypassed and used in favor of the player, like try to failing stones +0 +1 +2 more in a row to increase the chance of succes of a +5 stone, because ONLY +5 stones of the SAME type should influence another stone of that upgrade and that type. So only an evasion +5 should infuence the chance of success of a +5 evasion, if i fail a +2 dodge this event increases the chance of success of a +2 dodge not of a +5 eva and viceversa, neither a fail of a +5 dodge or +5 stone of magic should influence the chance of succes of an evasion +5 (because the stones could possibily have a different cost).





    Ok now let's talk about the Auction House, this is a feature that implements the possibility of selling item in global market, and everyone can search items for sale just writing its name on a search bar, the system will show all people that is selling it on the auction house and will sort the prices.


    Obviously this thing destroys the money earned by TEC points spended for shopbox, so why TEC should implements? Here it is a solution.


    This system should work in this way, items for sale in shopboxs should be put by the server in the auction house at the same price, and this should be the only way to put items for sale in the auction house ( so you have to pay a shopbox to actually sell items in the auction house). Instead buying items from it should be completely free, and everyone should have the access to it. However items could be possibly put for sale with an Auction not just fixed price.


    So as you see in this way it would just powerup the shopbox ( more shopbox bought)


    If this is too complicated to implement or requires too effort, there is a solution, the "search item" could do the job, an item sold by the general store, that you can use it near the shops, right-clicking on it a window with a search bar will pop up, you write the name of the item that you want to search, and the item will point every shop that sells items with the name you searched with a quest arrow ( red arrows on NPCs used for quests)


    So that's all, sorry for eventually grammatical errors. Let me know what you think.

    The post was edited 1 time, last by Gauss ().

  • i very like this suggestion about probability coz last time i destroyed 22x monster +5 in a row :/.
    And about auction house/warehouse i think this is bad idea coz it will destroy the soul of metin 2 :D

  • Well I'm completely ok with the system we have now on adding stones or upgrading items and the posibilites. After the last changes I think its more easy and at the end of the day thats the sweat part of this game and the hard part of it.So a change like this could destroy the hardcore-oldschool style it has. (and I'm a guy that also failed 21 mob stones+5 in a row at the very begginin but still) Too easy...


    I totally agree with the existence of the search item. I don't care how much it will cost or if it will be at the general store or on TEC points store but I need it, we all need it. Town 1 is too crowded difficult to find what you want, most of my friends have lag and can't find the items they want. Think how many times we wanted something and it was there but we couldn't see it cause we "maybe" forget to click 1 shop.That will also help the sellers to sell easier and faster. It could be nice if that item could work from distance and not only if you are close to the shops, like being at town 1 same channel but not close! I have seen this at another server and it was a briliant idea.

  • @buryzencio We don't need necessarily an auction house, the item searcher idea is enough :)


    @Glutamine Instead I think that the probability thing, is an old mechanic that need to revisited, and it is one of the reason because only old players play this game. Moreover I did an example where the percentage of success raised fast because the modifiers were relatively high, but that was only an example the modifiers could be only 2% or so, in that case is not too easy


    @YaY If you see in the topic there aren't example with +6 stones, that's because with +6 there is spirit blessing and it is covenient to use.
    The cost of +5 stones is around 40kk, and the cost of spirit blessing let's say 160kk so the whole thing 200kk for an 80% stone +5. Now with 200kk I have five stones +5 all 30%, the chance of insert one stone is 150%. Not really reasonable as you see.
    So there isn't a 'safe' way at the moment to insert stones +5, without talking about the possibility of uses of this mechanic in the upgrade of stones and equip (or reading books).

  • The first one is not necessary because then you can sell an items saying selling this +8 at 10% success. or selling something at that success rate and to know that you have a limit to know that i need to fail this 9 times so the 10th one will be a success is not a fun cuz you know it will happen.


    The second one is kinda okay to put ingame, that will let the staff be able to control the environment ingame. On the regular items ofcourse, not that you made a item +9 and with crazy stats and it can be sold same as an other one with 5 stats. The thing is it will be hard to do that....but if they do, then moneyflow will reduce a lot which will make more players be able to play and upgrade and be stronger easier.


    Back then Odin ring used to cost 20kk max, now everything is doubled as you can see. Imagine if the Auction house was up and Staff make that you only can sell Odin ring for 20kk, imagine how the other stuff would be? Or they need to make the price on items as based on how much is there on the server. Example: if there's 30 water crystal and people sell it 40kk ea, it's cuz it's kinda rare and hard to get, but if there's 400 water crystal the auction house will device to make the price even as 10kk each.


    Idk but the auction house would be cool idea if staff can control the money flow, will make some people mad that they can't control the money or the things.

  • @Thoreau You should explain your argumentations


    @UnkoJP I think you didn't understand the whole thing that I proposed (and I am sorry for that because it's my fault)
    First: As I said to Glutamine my example was just an example and that modifiers were very HIGH, so if we choose a modifier of 2% only or 1% too, in the case of an item +8 with 10% success, respectively with 2% modifier on the 46th try you will know that it will be a certain success and with 1% modifier on the 91th try you will know that it's a certain success! So as you see in that case you should hope a success before because every upgrade will cost money and items :P ( plus I think that after 45 tries or even 90 you absolutely deserve a success)


    Second: In the second example I talked about a multiplicative method, now I don't want to go deeper in this argument, but I want to say that with this method you wll NEVER know when a success will happen even if the probability will get higher on every fail, indeed it will get closer and closer to 100% but it will never get to 100%.
    And the fun you talk about or else the fact you will never know when a success will be is intact with a multiplicative modifier.


    Example: 5% multiplicative modifier ( it's 5% of the chance of failure)


    After 1 fail : chance of success is 14.5%
    . . .
    After 5 fails: chance of success is 30.3597%
    . . .
    After 10 fails: chance of success is 46.1137%
    . . .
    After 20 fails: chance of success is 67.7363%
    . . .
    After 30 fails: chance of success is 80.6825%
    . . .
    After 50 fails: chance of success is 93.0750%
    . . .
    After 100 fails: chance of success is 99.4672%
    . . .
    After 250 fails: chance of success is 99.9998%


    NOTE: It's just an example the modifier could be any number not necessarily 5.


    As you see you will never have 100% chance of success even after 250 fails (asymptotic convergence to 100)


    P.S I am Math student and these numbers are calculated with matlab, so they are right.

  • During the last 4 years we made several changes and tweeks to improve the game experience for the players and also to lower the pay to win setting that this game has. Thanks to the tradable mall ingame, any player, maller or not maller, can enjoy and reach end game content and we believe we adapted this old game to some of the new standards for a MMO. However what we didn't and what we will never do is to change the identity of the game and we believe that the upgrade system is a vital and unique feature that makes Metin2, Metin2 :)


    Metin2 is failing everything one day and upgrade something from +0 to+9 in a row the next day. Metin2 is being happy to have finaly upgraded that poison to +9 and being irrational when asking the GMs to fix your character because is bugged due to the many failings. We can't and don't want to change this.


    However, we already made the game less frustrating for the players. The refine plus helps you on refining gears and also stones. The spirit blessing helps you inserting the stones, one is premium, the other is ingame from the last boss we implemented.


    Everybody plays as they like cause after all, the time is yours, the golds you farm are yours, the money you spend is yours, but in my opinion, this obsession for the +6 or even +5 stones is silly.


    The game is flawed since it came to life, in my opinion the stones should have had a level requirment based on the weapon, such as on a level 30 weapon, max +2 stone, on a level 60, max +3 and so on. This would prevent people from wasting mountain of golds on socketing a full moon sword and would also balance more the difference between armors and weapons, but sadly we are 8 years too late to fix that.


    I saw several players of level 35 / 40 investing a lot of golds to socket their level 30 weapons with +6 stones. I believe they do it just for the obsession of the perfection, because when I check what they do ingame, they just rot on map2. Now a monster +6 is 15%, a monster +4 is 7%. That 8% difference will make you save what? 20 seconds per metin? Is just not worth the golds spent and you can play just fine without it. The same goes for the +5 stones. The difference is 3% but their cost is 5 or maybe even 6 times more than a +4 stone. Why would you waste so much golds, golds that you obviously need (otherwise you wouldn't feel frustrated at all) for 3%? With 30 milions you can buy an odin ring and get yourself a hair style with better bonus.


    The +6 stones are for high level players not for level 35 or 60. It is not a case that we always place the advance revoker on our generous drop events. It is really useful, you can socket a +4 stone and play just fine and if in the future you want to restone, you can do it with these scrolls, one stone at the time.


    Again, everybody plays their way and I am not going to say is wrong, but to win the frustration, sometimes we should just aim for what we have instead of what is the top.


    As for the Auction House, we were always against it and the feeling isn't change, it is also extremly hard to integrate a possible auction house with the shopbox, and considering the latest works just fine i believe there is no need at all. As for the Item search, we will eventualy make it.

  • The only problem i see with the item searcher is prices of everything will be more competitive than they already are, this coming from someone who killed the selling of giant symbols from 2-3kk each to lucky to get 1kk :D because i farmed so many.


    As a buyer i would love this because you can type something like "Spider Eyes" and find the cheapest and buy that one, but as the seller it would suck because people want their stuff to sell fast so they put it in half price, leaving your item to sit forever.


    Im not saying this to sound "greedy" but i see the prices of everything going down, great for buyers bad for sellers. We will see what comes of it :D

  • @Shadow In my humble opinion metin2 is a great game with an unique free pvp and other cool ideas those I like so much (otherwise I would not spend my time playing it and trying to change it), but it has some obsolete mechanics, far from perfection, those should be reworked in 2017, without compromising the core game.


    If I could completely agree on fact of limiting stones per level even if is too late now as you said, I don't agree on the fact of +6 stones, because this is true for weapons stones, but not for the armour stones, since the evasion stone +6 gives you 5% block more than +5 it could be vital for level 60 maps, and on other hand the defence is an exception with this rule because to +5 it gives 2 times the value of +4 and on +6 it gives you 2.5 times the value of +5, so it completely worths the effort ( this argument is valid for the stone of vita too). So these stone became much more useful on higher upgrades, the defence stone definetely worths the gold spended .


    At this point, since you didn't like my change, I am asking for a simpler request: put in game an item like the spirit blessing but only usable for +5 stones, it would cost much less and would worth the gold spended for a +5 stone.

  • much more useful on higher upgrades, the defence stone definetely worths the gold spended .



    At this point, since you didn't like my change, I am asking for a simpler request: put in game an item like the spirit blessing but only usable for +5 stones, it would cost much less and would worth the gold spended for a +5 stone.

    make Ork Maze great again xD


    Boss Box could drop something like that with low % ( and maybea a red changer as well? maybea? no? ok)

  • @Shadow In my humble opinion metin2 is a great game with an unique free pvp and other cool ideas those I like so much (otherwise I would not spend my time playing it and trying to change it), but it has some obsolete mechanics, far from perfection, those should be reworked in 2017, without compromising the core game.


    If I could completely agree on fact of limiting stones per level even if is too late now as you said, I don't agree on the fact of +6 stones, because this is true for weapons stones, but not for the armour stones, since the evasion stone +6 gives you 5% block more than +5 it could be vital for level 60 maps, and on other hand the defence is an exception with this rule because to +5 it gives 2 times the value of +4 and on +6 it gives you 2.5 times the value of +5, so it completely worths the effort ( this argument is valid for the stone of vita too). So these stone became much more useful on higher upgrades, the defence stone definetely worths the gold spended .


    At this point, since you didn't like my change, I am asking for a simpler request: put in game an item like the spirit blessing but only usable for +5 stones, it would cost much less and would worth the gold spended for a +5 stone.

    You can get evasion from other gears, you don't need to socket a +6 stone because 5% is low compared to the expensive cost of adding a +6 stones that by the way you wouldn't even need, because you are level 58. The monsters of that category are not even such a threat to require you so much evasion.


    For 5 years players managed to do just fine with +4 stones, from level 1 to 99, you don't really need them to play fine.


    At +5 you get 10% evasion instead of 7%. Once again I can assure you that 3% is so low you wouldn't even notice much. At +6 is15%, but monster within your level, the one that you are meant to farm, are so weak that they would die before they can strike a 2nd hit on you, so what is the point of adding expensive stones? Expecially because if you intend to level up you will have to do it all from the start with the steel set / aqua?


    The system is simple, if you want +6 stones you obviously have to spend mountain of golds, but you must also realise that unless you are around level 90+ you don't need stones above +5.


    Thanks

  • ...but it has some obsolete mechanics, far from perfection, those should be reworked in 2017, without compromising the core game.

    @Gauss our unsung hero of Elgoria


    you are completely right with that sentence but neither of the to options in my opinion are the things you need to focus on to be reworked.


    Maybe some irrational bugs like when you run in certain spots on Nephrite Bay you get stuck in the wall or reworking the alchemy system so DSS higher then low are actually craftable

    When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives

  • The system is simple, if you want +6 stones you obviously have to spend mountain of golds, but you must also realise that unless you are around level 90+ you don't need stones above +5.


    Thanks

    "You don't need stones above +5"
    But then u make pvm king event like...

  • @SirVivi
    as Shadow said people want to be perfect that's why they have this obsession with lowlvl and +6stones


    PvM King is the event for perfectionists because it shows who is the best in his own level range


    the same about budokan
    you can do pvp with only 1 or 2 Sets of eq but if you wanna win budokan, having 1sided eq against every race really helps

    When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies but the pack survives